Forex News: British Retail Sales: An Exclamation Mark on a Huge Week


Forex News: After establishing 1.0710 as support, the pair continued higher yesterday, touching the resistance at 1.0775. U.S. Manufacturing data was worse than anticipated and this contributed to the climb.

British Retail Sales: An Exclamation Mark on a Huge Week 1

Technical Outlook

As anticipated, the bulls remained in control and the pair re-tested the previously broken resistance (1.0710), bouncing higher and thus turning the level into support. The resistance at 1.0775 now stands in front of rising price and as seen from yesterday’s price action, the pair reacts to this level so we may get another retracement to the downside. As long as the pair keeps making higher lows and higher highs, our view is bullish but the Relative Strength Index is showing bearish divergence and this increases the chance of a move down.

Fundamental Outlook

At 7:30 am GMT, Germany will release their Services and Manufacturing PMIs, which are both leading indicators of economic health and optimism, derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from the respective sectors. The Services PMI is expected to show a value of 55.5 while the Manufacturing PMI has an anticipated value of 58.1; higher numbers usually strengthen the Euro but the indicators often have just a medium impact.



Price bounced almost perfectly at 1.2770, establishing the level as support but the previous high was not broken yesterday; however, the bulls remain in clear control.

British Retail Sales: An Exclamation Mark on a Huge Week 2

Technical Outlook

Currently the pair is capped by 1.2855 resistance and 1.2770 support and as long as these levels hold, we expect to see ranging movement. The bias remains clearly bullish and we anticipate a move above the previous high (1.2905) soon after the break of 1.2855. It is worth noting that both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are coming down from overbought area, so a break of 1.2770 is not out of the question but the extent of the move should be limited.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Retail Sales are released today at 8:30 am GMT, showing changes in the total value of sales mate via retail outlets. Usually the indicator has a hefty impact on the Pound, with higher numbers strengthening it. The expected value is -0.3%, compared to the previous 1.4%.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 7-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.