Forex News: US Dollar Under Heavy Pressure Ahead of Inflation and Retail Sales Data


Forex News: Selling pressure around the greenback increased yesterday and the pair broke above the resistance at 1.1670, a fact which triggered additional upside movement.

US Dollar Under Heavy Pressure Ahead of Inflation and Retail Sales Data 1

Technical Outlook

Yesterday the pair moved about 100 pips higher, which can be considered a huge move given the lack of volatility seen lately. Strong moves are usually followed by a pullback before price can advance further and this view is also supported by the fact that the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are both overbought. After this potential retracement, we expect the upside movement to continue towards 1.1825 resistance but a lot will depend on the U.S. data released today.

Fundamental Outlook

It’s a big day for the greenback, with two important releases: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Retail Sales, both scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. The CPI shows changes in the price that consumers pay for the goods and services they purchase and acts as one of the main gauges of inflation. The forecast for today is 0.1% and higher numbers usually strengthen the currency. The CORE version of the indicator, which excludes food and energy from calculation will be released at the same time and expected to show a change of 0.2%.

The Retail Sales are expected to show a change of 0.0% from the previous 1.6% and because this is the main gauge of consumer spending, higher than anticipated numbers strengthen the US Dollar and the opposite is true for lower numbers.



The pair remained relatively choppy yesterday, with some bearish movement generated by the worse than expected British CPI value (actual 3.0%, forecast 3.1%). Most of the action took place near 1.3100, without substantial developments.

US Dollar Under Heavy Pressure Ahead of Inflation and Retail Sales Data 2

Technical Outlook

Price action is choppy lately and all moves result in candles with long wicks, which is a clear sign of indecision. The ranging phase will continue until a breakout occurs. The levels to watch are 1.3100 (a break should be confirmed by a re-test), followed by 1.3030 to the downside. To the upside the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is the first potential resistance, followed by 1.3175.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Average Earning Index comes out, showing changes in the price paid by employers for labour. A higher number indicates that inflation may increase in the near future because if businesses pay higher labour costs, this will usually translate into a higher price paid by the consumer. Today’s forecast is 2.1%, while the previous was 2.2%.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 7-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.